Strategic Inference of Adversarial Navigation Objectives for Unmanned Underwater Vehicles

Abstract

We study destination inference for adversarial unmanned underwater navigation in a spatially varying current field. The red vehicle is modeled as approximately following a Hamilton-Jacobi (HJ) time-optimal path toward an unknown destination, while a blue vehicle observes a noisy realization of that trajectory. We derive a continuous-time likelihood model for this problem and obtain a closed-form local maximum likelihood estimator, a constant-memory multi-period estimator, and an asymptotic Cramér-Rao efficiency result. The Fisher information is governed by a combined score kernel with two additive components, a policy-mean sensitivity and a reference-path sensitivity, and a multiplicative drift sensitivity whose leading geometric contribution is a contraction of the current Hessian with the Jacobi field of the HJ characteristic flow. All three sensitivities are induced by that Jacobi field, yielding a computable link between current-field geometry and destination identifiability. We further extend the framework to a sweep-dependent observation model and formulate an active sweep-design problem for the blue team. Numerical experiments in vortex and channel-shear currents validate the Cramér-Rao prediction and illustrate how current geometry determines which destinations can be reliably inferred.

Disclosure

“r that is asymptotically manuscript preparation process. During the prepa- efficient, and a geometric characterization of the under- ration of this work, the authors used ChatGPT for En- lying Fisher information. glish language polishing and to improve the clarity of”

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2026-08-23T19:05:03.715834Z

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